UPDATED 10:30 EDT / JULY 29 2009

Web Use May Have Reached a Plateau, But Wait for ChromeOS

Brian Morrissey at MediaWeek points to a recent Forrester study that suggests that Internet and Web usage may have reached its height.

Forrester Research recently found only a small increase in the number of people using the Internet after years of steady growth in the online sector. According to its survey of nearly 38,000 users, the number of households with Internet access grew 3 percent year over year. Even broadband expansion has slowed to 6 percent. Both figures in previous years topped 10 percent in Forrester’s consumer poll.

This, of course, comes on the tails of recent reports suggesting that Asia’s meteoric growth in Internet usage is set to surpass North American usage very soon.

image But the drum I’ve been beating here for some time is that Chrome OS does not, in fact, represent an opening salvo to a direct war with Microsoft over operating system dominance.

What prevents wider adoption of technology, and online life, is one of economics.  Broadband pricetags continue to soar upwards of $50 to $100 a month, and while netbooks continue to fall into attainable price ranges for lower income families, they still have further to fall.

According to most estimates, there is still 25% – 50% of North Americans that still lack basic Internet access.  Attacking these markets is the goal of Chrome OS, not direct competition for Microsoft’s and Apple’s eyeballs (most of whom are already clicking on Google ads already).

Put another way, the only strategy for growth Google can pursue is one that grows the userbase of the Internet as a whole.

There Are Many Users Not Counted By Forrester’s Survey

I get the impression that Forrester may be discounting a lot of Internet users from their surveyed results due to the way most people access the Internet these days.

Forrester is likely trying to count users who simply sit in front of a terminal, but Internet access is being rapidly integrated into all facets of entertainment and communication.

Own a mobile phone? You’re an Internet user, and likely a good portion of your communication (both voice and data) is being routed across the Internet.  similarly, do you have FiOS, UVerse or other such services for your phone and television plans?  If so, that means every bit of data, be it American Idol or that call from Aunt Ida, is being routed across the Internet.

Mediaweek takes these study results as an indication that traditional TV has quite a bit of life left in it – I’d argue the opposite.  Internet habits and usage is infiltrating every facet of the average person’s interactions with the outside world, meaning that the traditional means of doing business for Old Media are numbered.


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