While the claim that 2016 will be the year of virtual reality is still debatable, there is no denying that the technology is generating a lot of interest from both consumers and industry professionals, and now analytics firm SuperData Research Inc has validated their excitement.

According to a new report, SuperData estimates that the virtual reality industry could generate up to $5.1 billion in revenue this year, but while devices like Oculus Rift and HTC Vive are capturing headlines now, SuperData does not think they will be the leaders of the industry for 2016.

“News like Oculus’s announcement that pre-sales will open January 6th further fuels VR gaming’s momentum,” SuperData said in its report. “But initial findings shows that it is mobile devices to prove to be key to the market’s initial growth. Consumers will use their smartphones to first explore virtual reality, before committing to the more expensive platforms. After this first wave, it is the more high-end devices on PC and console that will drive growth.”

SuperData believes that low cost and ease of use will make mobile VR devices like Google Cardboard and Samsung Gear VR appeal to a far greater audience than comparatively niche devices like Rift and Vive.

Out of the 38.9 million consumers SuperData expect to buy VR devices this year, a full 71 percent (about 27 million) of those will be “light mobile VR” systems like Google Cardboard, and another 7 percent (about 2.5 million units) will be “premium mobile VR” systems like Samsung Gear VR.

Meanwhile, SuperData expects high-end PC VR systems like Oculus Rift and HTC Vive to account for 17 percent (6.6 million units), and console devices like PlayStation VR to account for only 5 percent (1.9 million units).

“PC and console VR’s high barrier to entry will cause three in four early adopters to opt for more affordable mobile devices,” SuperData explained.

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