EMERGING TECH
EMERGING TECH
EMERGING TECH
Futures traders predict bitcoin price rise will rapidly slow
Investors in bitcoin futures launched on the Cboe Global Markets exchange Sunday are predicting that growth in the price of the cryptocurrency will rapidly slow in the coming months, ending an unprecedented bull run that has seen the price of bitcoin increase by 1,600 percent since the beginning of the year.
The newly launched XBT futures contracts are tradable legal agreements that entitle its holder to buy or sell bitcoin at a set price in the future. They currently come in three forms: one-month, two-month and three-month options. The price at which the future is traded is meant to reflect the price the market believes bitcoin will be one, two and three months from the point the contract is issued.
As of 10:30 p.m. EST, those contracts are currently being traded at $17,760, $18,141 and $18,080, respectively. However, all three future options varied in price throughout Monday, reflecting both the ongoing price volatility in bitcoin itself and institutional investors trying to price the futures in a new market.
By comparison, bitcoin is currently trading at $16,477.61. But it had hit highs of $17,370.21 in trading earlier in the day. If the futures market accurately predicts where the price of bitcoin is heading, that means in simple terms that bitcoin will only increase from its current price by around $1,600 by February, with the price remaining flat in March.
The unknown in the equation is whether those prices accurately reflect where bitcoin is heading. Given that less than a month ago experts were cautious in even predicting bitcoin would reach $14,000, they may not.
Alternatively, the futures may be overpriced and the price of bitcoin may actually decline in the months ahead. One analyst told Bloomberg that he thought the current futures prices were at a premium thanks to “demand for exposure to the price of bitcoin from investors who otherwise cannot or do not want to own actual bitcoins,” more than they reflected where the price of bitcoin may be heading.
Regardless of their accuracy in reflecting the future price of bitcoin, the futures contracts have proved to be popular. Cboe forced to halt trading twice because of circuit breakers triggered by high trading volume, and at least at one point the website went down.
Cboe will not remain alone as a possible price indicator for bitcoin. CME Group Inc. is set to launch bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Dec. 18.
Image: Pixabay
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